The three components are the rising outflow of funds from exchanges, improve in “HODLers,” and knowledge displaying that traders already took revenue.
Bitcoin is shifting from exchanges to particular person wallets
In line with the information from Glassnode, a considerable amount of Bitcoin has been shifting out of centralized exchanges in late October.
Woo says this metric is optimistic as a result of it reveals traders are transferring funds from buying and selling platforms to private wallets. This means that customers are holding their BTC with a long-term funding technique.
The analyst famous that Bitcoin noticed the very best variety of Bitcoin moved out of exchanges in a single day prior to now 5 years. He defined:
“A ridiculous quantity of cash had been scooped up and moved off to particular person wallets. Zooming out, placing this into perspective, it is the biggest at some point scoop up on this 5-year chart.”
The variety of “HODLers” is rising
Within the cryptocurrency market, analysts consult with long-time Bitcoin holders as “HODLers.” They have an inclination to carry onto BTC for extended durations, oftentimes for over a yr.
Earlier than the steep Bitcoin rally started that resulted in new multi-year highs, Woo mentioned the variety of Bitcoin HODLers was considerably growing. It recorded the most important spike since October 2017, which was only a few months earlier than BTC rallied to its all-time excessive in December. Woo famous:
“Previous to this pump, the inflow of latest HODLers seen on the blockchain was going by way of the roof. Repeat, by way of the roof, I am not kidding. This measurement of uptake was final seen in October 2017; that was one month earlier than BTC entered its 2017 mania part.”
The excessive variety of HODLers is a crucial metric as a result of it reveals real retail demand behind the uptrend. A BTC rally might grow to be weak to a serious pullback whether it is primarily led by the futures market.
Decrease threat of deep correction
The Bitcoin Spent Output Revenue Ratio (SOPR) is an indicator that reveals whether or not traders are taking revenue on their unrealized income.
Glassnode’s knowledge reveals a reasonably excessive variety of traders took revenue prior to now week. This reveals the specter of a serious profit-taking pullback is decrease as a result of traders have already began to appreciate their income as these cash have been absorbed by market consumers.
Based mostly on the three knowledge factors, Woo emphasised that he doesn’t see a blow-off top occurring. The time period blow-off prime refers to a technical formation whereby an asset’s value declines steeply after hitting a heavy resistance degree. Woo wrote:
“Total conclusion: Not anticipating a blow off prime. Ready for a consolidation to finish, then extra bullish motion.”
Within the brief time period, the danger to the continued Bitcoin rally stays the overcrowded derivatives market. As such, analysts anticipate some consolidation however not a deep correction, not less than for now.